Nigeria could face increased health risks from extreme heat in the coming months as the ongoing El Niño strengthens and pushes temperatures above normal levels.
A new analysis by the Climate Impact Lab projects that Nigeria could record about 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 compared with a normal year.
The figure is a modelled estimate rather than a confirmed death toll. Researchers arrived at the projection by combining long-range temperature forecasts with evidence on how temperature changes affect mortality across different locations.
Nigeria accounts for nearly half of the 66,800 additional heat-related deaths projected across some of the most affected countries in the Sahel during the six-month period.
The researchers also estimate that about 15,400 of Nigeria’s projected additional deaths could occur between December 2026 and February 2027, making preparedness in the coming months particularly important.
The concern comes as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts further strengthening of El Niño. Its October seasonal climate update projects the warming trend in the tropical Pacific to peak around December 2026.
However, the WMO cautions that a strong El Niño does not produce identical weather conditions everywhere. Its effects can differ by country and season and may also be influenced by other climate patterns.
Why Extreme Heat Is a Health Concern
Extreme heat can place the body under considerable stress, particularly when exposure is prolonged or people are unable to cool down.
Health problems associated with high temperatures include dehydration, heat exhaustion and potentially life-threatening heatstroke. Some groups may face greater risks, including older adults, young children, pregnant women, people with existing health conditions and those who spend long periods working outdoors.
The World Health Organization has called for stronger heat-health preparedness as extreme temperatures increasingly threaten vulnerable populations.
The Climate Impact Lab says the projected deaths are not unavoidable. Measures such as heat-warning systems, hydration stations, cooling centres, health outreach, protections for outdoor workers and stronger healthcare capacity could help reduce the impact.
For Nigeria, the projections highlight the need to treat periods of extreme heat not simply as uncomfortable weather, but as a potential public health concern requiring preparation and preventive action.
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